Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Series Opener Preview and Predictions
The Cincinnati Reds (62-65) are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-67) at PNC Park this Thursday in the first game of a four-game series. With the Pirates leading the season series 4-2, both teams are looking to make a strong push as the season progresses. Let’s dive into the matchup, analyzing the odds and providing expert picks and predictions.
Season Overview and Team Performance
The Pirates, despite sitting at the bottom of the NL Central, have been a competitive team this season. They are coming off a tough 1-0 loss to the Texas Rangers, which resulted in losing the series 2-1. Over their last 16 games, Pittsburgh has struggled, going 3-13, including a 2-5 record at home during this stretch. Currently, the Pirates hold a 29-32 home record and are 70-56 against the spread (ATS).
On the other hand, the Reds are third in the NL Central, just a few games ahead of the Pirates. Cincinnati is coming off an 11-7 road win against the Toronto Blue Jays, securing a 2-1 series victory. This success on the road followed a disappointing sweep by the Kansas City Royals at home. The Reds boast a 31-31 record on the road this season and are 70-57 ATS.
Projected Starters
- Reds: LHP Nick Lodolo
Lodolo, with a 9-5 record and a 4.55 ERA, makes his 21st start of the season. While he’s been effective overall, his last outing was a struggle, allowing 8 earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Royals. Lodolo’s away stats show a mixed performance with a 4-4 record and a 6.09 ERA in 11 starts on the road. - Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes
Skenes has been a bright spot for the Pirates, sporting a 7-2 record with a 2.30 ERA in 16 starts. He earned a win in his last start against the Seattle Mariners, pitching 6 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs. Skenes has been reliable at home with a 4-1 record and a 2.80 ERA across 9 starts.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Moneyline:
- Reds +124
- Pirates -146
Run Line/Against the Spread (ATS):
- Reds +1.5 (-178)
- Pirates -1.5 (+146)
Over/Under:
- 7.5 (Over +100 | Under -122)
Expert Picks and Predictions
Moneyline:
BET REDS (+124).
Although Paul Skenes has had a strong season, the Pirates have struggled in his recent home starts, going 1-2 in his last 3 at PNC Park. Meanwhile, the Reds have been solid on the road, winning 6 of their last 10 away games and 3 of their last 4. With Nick Lodolo on the mound, Cincinnati has won his last 2 road starts. The Reds offer good value as underdogs.
Run Line/Against the Spread:
PASS.
The value on the run line is not favorable for either team. The Reds are too expensive as underdogs, and the Pirates have been inconsistent as favorites, making this bet too risky.
Over/Under:
BET OVER 7.5 (+100).
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The Reds have gone Over in their last 3 games and have been consistent in scoring and allowing runs. The Pirates have also shown the ability to score, making the Over 7.5 a solid bet.
FAQs
1. Who are the projected starting pitchers for this game?
- Nick Lodolo (Reds) and Paul Skenes (Pirates) are the projected starters.
2. What are the recent performances of these teams?
- The Pirates have struggled recently, going 3-13 in their last 16 games. The Reds have been better, winning 6 of their last 10 road games.
3. What are the betting odds for the game?
- The Reds are +124 underdogs on the moneyline, while the Pirates are -146 favorites. The Over/Under is set at 7.5.
4. Which team has the advantage in the pitching matchup?
- Paul Skenes has been more consistent this season, but Nick Lodolo’s recent road performances have been strong, making the pitching matchup more balanced than it appears.
5. What’s the best bet for this game?
- The best bet is to back the Reds (+124) on the moneyline and consider betting the Over 7.5 (+100).
